(Note: The Senate passed legislation on 12/1/17)

A new analysis by AARP’s Public Policy Institute concludes people in this age group would face average premium increases of up to $1,500 in 2019. The higher costs, according to AARP, comes because eliminating the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate would result in fewer younger, healthier people paying for health insurance, and premiums paid by older Americans would make up the difference.

For another perspective, read the views of Drew Carrington, head of Institutional Defined Contribution at Franklin Templeton Investments.

Here’s more from the AARP report:

“Millions of older Americans would pay higher health care costs or lose coverage under Senate Republicans' tax-overhaul legislation, which is heading for a vote this week, (update: Senate passed the bill on Dec. 1) according to a new analysis by AARP’s Public Policy Institute. People ages 50 to 64 would face average premium increases of up to $1,500 in 2019 as a result of the bill, the AARP study found.

“Already approved by the Senate Finance Committee, the plan eliminates the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, which requires most Americans to have health insurance. Getting rid of the mandate would save more than $300 billion and offset the cost of the GOP tax plan, which, Republicans say, will accelerate economic growth by cutting the top corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent. 

“But eliminating the mandate would leave 4 million more Americans uninsured by 2019 and 13 million by 2025, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. With fewer younger, healthier people obligated to pay for health insurance, average overall premiums in the individual market would rise about 10 percent annually “in most years” over the next decade, the CBO said.

“Older Americans ages 50 to 64, who typically pay higher insurance premiums, would bear the brunt of the mandate’s demise.

“According to the AARP’s Public Policy Institute analysis, here’s how premiums would rise in 2019 in the individual marketplaces for health care under the Senate plan.

• Premiums for 50-year-olds could increase by an average of $890, rising to $9,780 a year.
• Premiums for 55-year-olds could increase by an average of $1,110, rising to $12,200 a year.
• Premiums for 60-year-olds could increase by an average of $1,350, rising to $14,860 a year.
• Premiums for 64-year-olds could increase by an average of $1,490, rising to $16,420 a year.”

Continue to AARP.org to read more.